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From what I know, Canine Coronovirus (CCV) is different in dogs than in people. In dogs, it's an intestinal virus and can be fatal, but I have never read where the canine variety is transmissible to humans.

In the new human variety, major symptoms are respiratory, and in parts of China has been spreading exponentially, but the fatality rate reported on Worldometers.info so far is low. That's a mind boggling site, btw, with all kinds of world statistics. Re: the photo below, not that the report is for today, but the count of cases and deaths is from a week ago, on 1/21.


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Here's an interesting article from WebMD: What Are Epidemics, Pandemics, and Outbreaks? It also has tips on prevention and preparation. This is good advice since the general flu is currently more of a danger in North American than than this new one.

Are any of you worried, or what are your thoughts and observations as this new pandemic unfolds?
 

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I read this new coroner virus came from snakes and the virus evolved making it transmissible to humans. I'm sure there's many theories though.

It's reminds me of swine flu. I didn't know anyone who got that and it seemed it was going to get everyone with the news reports on it.
We haven't had any cases of coroner yet in the UK tough so I'm not too worried.

I don't know what to make of that graph. It looks reassuring because the deaths are low compared to cases but it's just a week, will the death rate rise after. The rate of cases going is quite alarming!
 

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I think anything strange and new is bound to feel scary. I stumbled upon this article the other day and it put things in perspective for me:


Influenza has already sickened at least 13 million Americans this winter, hospitalizing 120,000 and killing 6,600, according to the CDC. And flu season hasn’t even peaked. In a bad year, the flu kills up to 61,000 Americans.

But....it's still scary. The idea of whole massive cities being shut down? That's straight out of a horror movie.
 

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I read that ground zero was a market in Wuhan, China that sold exotics and wildlife. The original source likely being bats, that may have infected other species. In any event, the Coronavirus is scary. Can you imagine if you lived in Wuhan under lockdown? I have tremendous respect for the scientists and healthcare professionals who are taking bat guano samples, investigating transmission and hopefully racing towards a vaccine cure. All you can do is wash your hands and don’t count on Purell
 

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I read that ground zero was a market in Wuhan, China that sold exotics and wildlife. The original source likely being bats, that may have infected other species. In any event, the Coronavirus is scary. Can you imagine if you lived in Wuhan under lockdown? I have tremendous respect for the scientists and healthcare professionals who are taking bat guano samples, investigating transmission and hopefully racing towards a vaccine cure. All you can do is wash your hands and don’t count on Purell
I read the same thing too. I think I would be very worried and scared if I was in Wuhan right now. That's true!
 

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... Can you imagine if you lived in Wuhan under lockdown? ...
Barely. The streets are mostly deserted. Stores and schools are shut down. Grocery store shelves are empty from one news story I read. Rumors abound. People are staying home.

I have wondered what it will be like getting food, diapers, feminine products, birth control, and routine prescriptions when they run out? And what about pet food? Is there trash pick up? How about getting cigarettes? Alcohol? Illegal drugs? I imagine there will be a black market for these, as their surely would be in the US.

And what if you need a plumber or your heating breaks down? Or you need to call the police on a neighbor or robber or a domestic violence situation; will they even come? As as this thing drags on, even with adequate food supplies, boredom and/or cabin fever will be a problem for many. This could lead to a baby boom in 9 months, like it has as a result of major blackouts here in the US.

China is a very strict society, but also has reputation for being well-organized and able to cut through red tape, so I'll guess their government and military will announce locations for pickups, but transportation will be a hardship unless there are many checkpoints.

What other country could dare to say they'll build a major hospital from the ground up in a week, and start the project immediately? I did a double take when I saw that story. Read "How China can build a hospital for coronavirus patients in a week". Not only that, but they started on a 2nd hospital which is due to be complete on Feb 3rd. Both articles have interesting photos and videos too.

I live in DC, and I swear, if this coronavirus problem had hit a major US city first, forget about getting all the permits and contracts needed and figure out who would pay to build a new hospital in a week or even six months. And can you imagine all businesses and residents in the US being so compliant? I can't.

Back to China. With everything closed, people can't work which means no paychecks to pay rent and utilities. 78% of U.S. workers are living paycheck to paycheck, so over there, will banks and businesses be forgiving of those behind of payments afterwards?

My mother's father died from 1918 Spanish Flu when she was an infant. It left her mother a widow with four young children, and she remarried several years later. She recalls her stepfather favoring his own two sons; they got to drink milk and had the largest portions after the Great Depression hit in 1929. When I learned about this as teen over 40 years later, I became interested in the history in pandemics and how these affected those societies.

The human coronovirus is extremely infectious. In this BBC news article on Jan 3rd, China was alerted and concerned that 44 people were sick from a "mystery pneumonia" disease. On Jan 9th, they reported 60 cases, and identified it as a "new type of coronavirus". It's only Jan 29th, and in China, there are nearly 6,000 confirmed cases, 9200 suspected cases, and 16 other countries reported confirmed cases.

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Scary, but the stats show that fatality rate is very low. If that's accurate, China and most of the world will be fairly safe, so I'll pray and not panic that this one could be another big one in humanity's timeline of pandemics, and a vaccine will be available really soon.
 

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Call me a skeptic, but I wouldn’t want to be admitted to a Chinese hospital that was built in a day. However, if I exhibited symptoms in Wuhan, maybe that would be another story... What’s very creepy to me is how quickly, an entire city was locked down. No one leaves and yet there are still so many unanswered questions from a disease control, transmission, mortality perspective. Was that the right call according to international contagious disease experts or another chilling example of China?
 

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I overheard some Chinese colleagues discussing this today. They are quite worried, and talking about widespread closures (last I heard 17 cities, totalling 50 million people?), people stockpiling/empty shelves, and face masks being sold for astronomical prices. I think the sounds of it is that the closures are more severe than is being widely reported here.

I am worried - I was hit hard by swine flu in my teens, including several hours being monitored in emerg because I was barely breathing, and I was far healthier then than I am now. I also have several family members who are definitely also in the "at risk" population. Nothing I can do - with an estimated 5 million people leaving Wuhan to travel home for Chinese New Years celebrations days before the quarantine, it'll be here soon enough. I did do an extra-big grocery shop this week, and picked up a bag of dog food early, so I can avoid going out in public if I need to.

On the other hand, I'm a map geek, and this one is really interesting to watch. I do feel they could have chosen a colour other than blood red and black to symbolize it though!!!!
It worries me that the "deaths" tally is higher than the "recovered" tally!

I guess what we are waiting to see is if it will mutate to become more dangerous. The first mutation was the ability to transmit human to human, now it's showing signs of becoming better at human to human transmission. There are other strains of coronavirus, including some strains of the common cold - here's to hoping this one mutates to be just a minor inconvenience!
 

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Yeah I was thinking too, stock up on a few things (don't forget prescriptions and dog food) and just be cautious for a bit. It will soon run its course and we'll be back to worrying about other things :)

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Thanks for sharing that, For Want of Poodles. Scary map in you link, a must read.

What bothers me is if only 132 people have died, why lock down Wuhan and work day and night to build large hospitals?

The reported fatalities are less than a bad flu season, so it could be that the contagion rate rocketed so fast and so high?

Or is their experience with SARS in 2002-04 was so traumatic they aren't taking chances with this one?

Or is that fatality number just the tip of the iceberg and vastly under-reported to prevent global markets and the stock markets from crashing and wiping out their economic successes?

I too have been thinking about stocking up with cough syrup, fever reducer, and a box of face masks which are being sold out fast even in the US, but a part of me doesn't want to give into fears that may never materialize, like fears the Ebola spreading in the US (never happened), or before that in the late '70s to mid-80s, panic over not knowing how HIV was transmitted which led to gays in particular being discriminated against.

I will order some items, but until/unless this thing evolves, not too much. I did that after 9/11 out of fears of my area (DC) after being attacked again (the Pentagon was hit too), and I ended up way too much canned food, which yuck, I hate in general. And YES! Let's hope this thing mutates to a weaker strain!
 

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What bothers me is if only 132 people have died, why lock down Wuhan and work day and night to build large hospitals?
Good idea! I always forget about non-prescription drugs until I need them!

As for China - I tend not to trust Chinese statistics, and I know they were found with SARS to have vastly downplayed the severity of the issue. My understanding of the hospital is it is more like a series of prefab shelters for quarantine - not a true hospital as we would envision it.

If you like maps - this one is also interesting. It's the typical 3 month travel patterns of people from 18 high risk cities in China internationally at this time of year, and shows where the virus is most likely to travel to first - Fig 8 in this link.
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I will note that symbology has a HUGE impact on how most people view maps. Notice how much less stressful the map above is than the map below. At one point I made webmaps like the John Hopkins one (shown below for quick reference)
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I think the John Hopkins map was made for shock value, and to make scary news stories/get publicity. I could very easily take the same dataset as the John Hopkins map, and with symbology changes, make it seem like the coronavirus outbreak was a minor problem. Simply use a topographic or light coloured basemap instead of black, use small dots of varied colours (blue for 1-3 cases, green for 3-10, yellow for 10-100, red for 100+) and I think it would look far less alarming, and probably also more informative! Even adding the % of infected who have died (instead of just total deaths) would be less alarming.
 

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I read this new coroner virus came from snakes and the virus evolved making it transmissible to humans. I'm sure there's many theories though...


Vee, I just ran across this from 1/24/20 in NewScientist.com. Here's an excerpt:


Where did the virus come from?

The World Health Organization told journalists this week that the agency is still working to pin down the source of the virus. But many of the first confirmed cases were in people who had visited a food market in Wuhan. The market, which sells live farmed and wild animals, has since been closed and disinfected.

A recent genetic analysis suggests that the virus resembles viruses that infect bats and snakes. Researchers believe that it may have resulted from separate viruses in bats and snakes recombining. This could have happened in the wild, but may also have occurred in the market, where the animals have been kept in close proximity to each other.

How did the virus spread to humans?

The same genetic analysis suggests that the virus may have developed the ability to jump from snakes to people thanks to a mutation in a gene for a protein. If the virus was secreted in the animals’ faeces, this could have become aerosolised and breathed in, some researchers speculate...


...My understanding of the hospital is it is more like a series of prefab shelters for quarantine - not a true hospital as we would envision it...
Oh, that explains a lot, sort of like when the military sets up a temporary medic area (what are those called?) to treat wounded soldiers in the area.

...I think the John Hopkins map was made for shock value, and to make scary news stories/get publicity. I could very easily take the same dataset as the John Hopkins map, and with symbology changes, make it seem like the coronavirus outbreak was a minor problem...
Yes, that's a good point, and those gray/black and read colors are grim. Reminds me of that old book, "How To Lie With Statistics", or in this case, setting a dark tone to scare people.

Yeah I was thinking too, stock up on a few things (don't forget prescriptions and dog food) and just be cautious for a bit. It will soon run its course and we'll be back to worrying about other things :)
Bluegirl, I hope this blows over fast too so we can return to worrying about other things! Of course, the news will milk this story as long as possible! :)
 

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Just the facts and an honest assessment of what isn’t known too, would be appreciated.
Agreed! This is a pretty good and factual article. Most interesting to me where the believed death rate (2% vs 10% with SARS) and the ratio of Japanese citizens being repatriated from the area believed to be infected.

 

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I read this new coroner virus came from snakes and the virus evolved making it transmissible to humans...
I read that ground zero was a market in Wuhan, China that sold exotics and wildlife. The original source likely being bats, that may have infected other species....
Quick Update: The latest I read about the source, "New coronavirus may be much more contagious than initially thought" says this:

... "While the origins of the virus are still unclear, it is thought that the virus was passed from bats to people, possibly via snakes or minks. All of these animals were reportedly on sale at the Huanan seafood market in Wuhan, where the first cases of the virus were reported.

"The Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS) has called for the ban to be made permanent...”
 

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I read today, that China punished and silenced the early healthcare professionals who identified and warned about this new virus; wasting precious time. By then 5 million Wuhan residents had left fanning across China and the globe. There’s a Carnaval Cruise Ship, languishing on the Italian Coast right now with the virus onboard. Corona Cruise Line, sadly one of many means of transportation.l
 

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At my work we had a meeting with the government about coronavirus in the northeast and one guy from Telegraph Creek calling in to the meeting on the phone asked, if someone's sick with flu-like symptoms, do they have to go to a hospital? So the government rep said, "they should be evaluated by their doctor and he/she will make that decision." We looked at each other and whispered, she clearly doesn't know where Telegraph Creek is, lol.

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I have a really simple suggestion for getting the most accurate and up to date information. Go here www.cdc.gov or here www.who.org You don't need to go anywhere other than the home pages to get started.

And, no, I am not worried. Don't panic. Panicking is dangerous.
 

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I'm also not worried. If one gets sick, with flu, or flu like you go to the doctor. Its not really a deadly virus with care but just like a flu it can be dangerous especially to the elderly, children or health impaired. I had a nephew who was totally disabled, when he would catch a cold he had to be hospitalized. He did pass away years ago now from a cold. He couldn't cough so it would always turn into pneumonia, and then it would lead to bacteria in the blood. That being said I wouldn't travel to China right now .
 

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I’m not worried in Houston, Texas, but it is important to stay informed, boost your immune system through diet, wash your hands and get a flu shot. DFW is one of the 11 US airports designated for Chinese flights with quarantine capability. Good to know as I fly there frequently.
 
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